Most teams notice this two quarters late. A page that has held position two for years quietly loses traffic, and nothing in the usual reporting explains why: the ranking is unchanged, the page is unchanged, and the monthly SEO report is still green. The traffic went to an answer that appeared above the results and named someone else.
Your rankings held and your traffic didn't. AI Overviews now trigger on a large share of commercial queries in categories like yours, and pages holding position two are losing clicks to answers shown above them.
Your competitor gets cited, and you don't. Ask Gemini the question your best prospect would ask before a first call. If a competitor's name comes back and yours doesn't, they are already on the shortlist, and you aren't.
Your agency optimizes for a results page your buyers skip. Ask them how Gemini selects and cites sources, and the answer usually comes down to "keep publishing quality content". Entity resolution and passage-level extraction never come up.
You have no way to measure any of it. Google Search Console reports impressions and clicks. It says nothing about how often Gemini names your brand, which prompts it uses, or whether last quarter's content budget moved that number.
You are strong in classic Google and absent in AI Mode. Ranking well makes you eligible for citation. It does not guarantee one, and plenty of page-one brands are never named.
When the AI does mention your product, it gets it wrong. With no clean entity record to work from, Google's models fill the gaps with whatever they find, usually a review aggregator or a competitor's comparison page.